Iyada oo ay jirto laba kicin oo ku saabsan soo kabashada baahida iyo khalkhalka silsiladda sahayda, qiimaha aluminiumku wuxuu gaaray heerkii ugu sarreeyay muddo 13 sano ah. Isla mar ahaantaana, hay'aduhu waxay ku kala duwanaayeen jihada mustaqbalka ee warshadaha. Falanqeeyayaasha qaar ayaa aaminsan in qiimaha aluminiumku uu sii wadi doono inuu kor u kaco. Hay'adaha qaarna waxay bilaabeen inay soo saaraan digniino suuqa orso, iyagoo sheegaya in heerka ugu sarreeya uu gaaray.
Iyadoo qiimaha aluminiumku uu sii kordhayo, Goldman Sachs iyo Citigroup waxay sare u qaadeen filashooyinkooda ku aaddan qiimaha aluminiumka. Qiyaasta ugu dambeysay ee Citigroup ayaa ah in saddexda bilood ee soo socota, qiimaha aluminiumku uu kor u kici karo ilaa US$2,900/ton, qiimaha aluminiumka 6-12-biloodna uu kor u kici karo US$3,100/ton, maadaama qiimaha aluminiumku uu ka gudbi doono suuqa dibiga ee wareegga ah una gudbi doono suuqa dibiga ee qaab-dhismeedka. Celceliska qiimaha aluminiumka waxaa la filayaa inuu noqdo US$2,475/ton sanadka 2021 iyo US$3,010/ton sanadka soo socda.
Goldman Sachs waxay aaminsan tahay in saadaasha silsiladda sahayda adduunka ay sii xumaan karto, qiimaha aluminiumka mustaqbalkana la filayo inuu sii kordho, qiimaha bartilmaameedka aluminiumka mustaqbalka ee 12ka bilood ee soo socdana la gaarsiiyo US$3,200/ton.
Intaa waxaa dheer, dhaqaaleyahanka ugu sarreeya ee Trafigura Group, oo ah shirkad caalami ah oo ka ganacsata badeecadaha, ayaa sidoo kale Talaadadii u sheegay warbaahinta in qiimaha aluminiumku uu sii wadi doono inuu gaaro heerkii ugu sarreeyay marka loo eego baahida xooggan iyo hoos u dhaca wax soo saarka.
Cod caqli gal ah
Laakiin isla waqtigaas, codad badan ayaa bilaabay inay ku baaqaan in suuqa uu dego. Qofka khuseeya ee mas'uulka ka ah Ururka Warshadaha Birta ee aan ferrous lahayn ee Shiinaha ayaa dhawaan sheegay in qiimaha sare ee aluminiumka ee soo noqnoqda uusan noqon karin mid waara, ayna jiraan "saddex khatar oo aan la taageerin iyo laba khatar oo waaweyn."
Qofka mas'uulka ka ah ayaa sheegay in arrimaha aan taageerin kororka joogtada ah ee qiimaha aluminiumka ay ka mid yihiin: ma jiro yaraan muuqata oo ku timid sahayda aluminiumka elektaroonigga ah, warshadaha oo dhamina waxay samaynayaan dadaal kasta si loo hubiyo sahayda; kororka kharashka wax soo saarka aluminiumka elektaroonigga ah si cad uma sarreeyo sida kororka qiimaha; isticmaalka hadda jira kuma filna inuu taageero qiimaha aluminiumka oo sarreeya.
Intaa waxaa dheer, wuxuu sidoo kale xusay khatarta sixitaanka suuqa. Wuxuu sheegay in kororka weyn ee hadda ku yimid qiimaha aluminiumku uu ka dhigay shirkadaha warshadaynta aluminiumka ee hoos yimaada kuwa hooseeya inay yihiin kuwo murugo leh. Haddii warshadaha hoose ay buux dhaafaan, ama xitaa marka qiimaha sare ee aluminiumku uu joojiyo isticmaalka terminalka, waxaa jiri doona agab kale, kuwaas oo ruxi doona aasaaska kororka qiimaha waxayna horseedi doonaan in qiimuhu si dhakhso ah dib ugu soo laabto heer sare muddo gaaban gudaheed, taasoo abuuraysa khatar nidaamsan.
Madaxa mas'uulka ayaa sidoo kale xusay saameynta ay siyaasadaha lacageed ee bangiyada dhexe ee waaweyn ee adduunka ku leeyihiin qiimaha aluminiumka. Wuxuu sheegay in jawiga aan hore loo arag ee yareynta lacagta uu yahay kan ugu weyn ee keenaya wareeggan qiimaha badeecadaha, marka lacagta la dhimo, qiimaha badeecaduhuna uu sidoo kale la kulmi doono khataro waaweyn oo nidaamsan.
Jorge Vazquez, agaasimaha maamulka ee Harbor Intelligence, oo ah shirkad la-talin oo Mareykan ah, ayaa sidoo kale ku raacsan Ururka Warshadaha Birta ee aan ferrous lahayn ee Shiinaha. Wuxuu sheegay in baahida loo qabo aluminiumku ay dhaaftay heerkeedii ugu sarreeyay ee wareegga ah.
"Waxaan aragnaa in xawaaraha baahida qaab-dhismeedka ee Shiinaha (aluminium) uu daciifayo", khatarta ah in hoos u dhac dhaqaale uu ka dhaco warshadaha ayaa sii kordheysa, qiimaha aluminium-na wuxuu halis ugu jiraa inuu si degdeg ah u burburo, Vazquez ayaa ka yiri shirkii warshadaha ee Dekedda Khamiistii.
Afgambigii Guinea ayaa walaac ka muujiyay carqaladaynta silsiladda sahayda bauxite ee suuqa adduunka. Si kastaba ha ahaatee, khubarada warshadaha bauxite ee dalka ayaa sheegay in afgambigu uusan saameyn weyn ku yeelan doonin dhoofinta muddada gaaban.
Waqtiga boostada: Sebtembar-13-2021