Marka loo eego laba kicinta soo kabashada baahida iyo carqaladaynta silsiladda sahayda, qiimaha aluminiumku wuxuu kacay 13-sano oo sarreeya.Isla mar ahaantaana, hay'adaha ayaa ku kala aragti duwanaaday jihada mustaqbalka ee warshadaha.Falanqeeyayaasha qaarkood waxay aaminsan yihiin in qiimaha aluminiumku uu sii wadi doono inuu kordho.Hay'adaha qaarkoodna waxay bilaabeen inay soo saaraan digniinaha suuqa, iyagoo sheegaya in heerkii ugu sarreeyay uu yimid.
Maaddaama qiimaha aluminiumku uu sii socdo, Goldman Sachs iyo Citigroup waxay kor u qaadeen rajada laga qabo qiimaha aluminiumka.Qiyaastii ugu dambeysay ee Citigroup ayaa ah in saddexda bilood ee soo socota, qiimaha aluminiumku uu kor u kici karo US$2,900/ton, iyo 6-12-bilood qiimaha aluminiumku wuxuu u kici karaa US$3,100/ton, maadaama qiimaha aluminiumku uu ka gudbi doono suuqa dibi wareegtada ah una gudbi doono qaab dhismeed suuqa dibida.Celceliska qiimaha aluminiumka ayaa la filayaa inuu noqdo US$2,475/ton sanadka 2021 iyo US$3,010/ton sanadka soo socda.
Goldman Sachs wuxuu aaminsan yahay in rajada laga qabo silsiladda sahayda caalamiga ah laga yaabo inay sii xumaato, qiimaha aluminiumka mustaqbalka ayaa la filayaa inuu kordho, iyo qiimaha bartilmaameedka aluminium mustaqbalka ee bilaha 12 ee soo socda ayaa kor loo qaaday US $ 3,200 / ton.
Intaa waxaa dheer, madaxa dhaqaalaha ee Trafigura Group, oo ah shirkad caalami ah oo ka ganacsata badeecadaha, ayaa sidoo kale u sheegay warbaahinta Talaadadii in qiimaha aluminiumku uu sii wadi doono inuu ku dhufto rikoodhada rikoodhka ah ee baahida xooggan iyo qoto-dheeraynta wax-soo-saarka.
Cod macquul ah
Laakin isla wakhtigaas, waxa bilaabay codad badan oo ku baaqaya in suuqa la dejiyo.Qofka ay khusayso ee masuulka ka ah Ururka Warshadaha Biraha ee Shiinuhu wuxuu sheegay wakhti aan dheerayn in qiimaha aluminiumka sare ee soo noqnoqda laga yaabo inaysan sii jiri karin, waxaana jira "saddex aan la taageerin iyo laba khatarood oo waaweyn."
Qofka mas'uul ka ah ayaa sheegay in arrimaha aan taageersanayn korodhka joogtada ah ee qiimaha aluminiumka waxaa ka mid ah: ma jirto wax yar oo ka mid ah sahayda aluminiumka elektaroonigga ah, iyo dhammaan warshadaha oo dhan waxay samaynayaan dadaal kasta si loo hubiyo sahayda;Korodhka kharashka wax-soo-saarka aluminium ee elektrolytka ah ayaa iska cad maaha mid sarreeya sida kor u kaca qiimaha;Isticmaalka hadda ma aha mid ku filan in lagu taageero qiimaha aluminium ee sarreeya.
Intaa waxaa dheer, wuxuu sidoo kale xusay khatarta sixitaanka suuqa.Waxa uu sheegay in kororka weyn ee hadda ee qiimaha aluminiumku ay ka dhigtay shirkadaha wax soo saara aluminiumka hoose mid murugo leh.Haddii warshadaha hoose ay buuxsamaan, ama xitaa mar qiimaha aluminium sare ee ka hortagga isticmaalka terminal, waxaa jiri doona qalab kale, kaas oo ruxi doona saldhigga qiimaha korodhka oo u horseedaya qiimuhu si dhakhso ah ayuu dib ugu soo noqdaa heer sare ah waqti gaaban, samaynta a khatarta habaysan.
Qofka mas'uulka ka ah ayaa sidoo kale xusay saameynta adkeynta siyaasadaha lacagta ee bangiyada dhexe ee adduunka ee qiimaha aluminium.Waxa uu sheegay in jawiga fududaynta lacagaha ee aan hore loo arag uu yahay waxa ugu wayn ee keenaya wareegtada qiimaha badeecadaha, isla markaana marka ay meesha ka baxdo qiimaha sarifka lacagaha, sidoo kale qiimaha badeecadaha uu la kulmi doono khataro badan oo habaysan.
Jorge Vazquez, oo ah agaasimaha maamulka Harbor Intelligence, oo ah shirkad latalin Mareykan ah, ayaa sidoo kale ku raacsan Ururka Warshadaha Metal ee Shiinaha ee aan-ferrous.Waxa uu sheegay in baahida aluminiumku ay dhaaftay heerkeedii ugu sarreeyay.
"Waxaan aragnaa dardargelinta baahida qaabdhismeedka Shiinaha (aluminium) ayaa daciifaya", khatarta ah hoos u dhaca warshadaha ayaa sii kordhaya, qiimaha aluminiumku wuxuu halis ugu jiraa burbur degdeg ah, Vazquez ayaa ka sheegay shirka warshadaha Harbor Khamiista.
Inqilaabka Guinea ayaa kor u qaaday walaaca ku saabsan carqaladaynta silsiladda saadka bauxite ee suuqa caalamiga ah.Si kastaba ha ahaatee, khubarada ku xeel dheer wershadaha bauxite ee dalka ayaa sheegay in afgambigani aanu u badnayn in uu saamayn weyn ku yeesho muddo gaaban oo dhoofinta.
Waqtiga boostada: Seb-13-2021