Waa maxay isbeddelka qiimaha iyo arrimaha ugu muhiimsan ee saameeya kookaha batroolka ee graphitized?

Falanqaynta Isbeddellada Qiimaha iyo Arrimaha Saameynta Muhiimka ah ee Batrool Kookaha Garaafiga ah (Marka laga eego Aragtida 2025)

I. Isbeddellada Qiimaha: Kororka Muddada Gaaban oo ay ku xigto Kala Duwanaansho, Muddada Dheer oo ay Taageerto Farqiga Baahida Sahayda

1. Waxqabadka Qiimaha sanadka 2025

• Coke-ga sulfur-ka yar ayaa hogaaminaya kacdoonka: Iyada oo ay ugu wacan tahay kororka baahida loo qabo walxaha anode ee baabuurta cusub ee tamarta, qiimaha coke-ga sulfur-ka yar ayaa si degdeg ah kor ugu kacay horraantii 2025. Tusaale ahaan, qiimaha coke-ga sulfur-ka yar ee Fushun Petrochemical ayaa ka kordhay 3,000 yuan/ton bishii Diseembar 2024 ilaa 3,500 yuan/ton bishii Janaayo 2025, iyadoo qiimaha qaar ee xaraashka uu ka badan yahay 4,200 yuan/ton.
• Coke-ka sulfur-ka ee dhexdhexaadka ah ilaa sare ayaa ku xiga: Coke-ka sulfur-ka dhexe waxaa lagu qiimeeyay inta u dhaxaysa 2,400 iyo 2,900 yuan/tan, halka coke-ka sulfur-ka sare uu u dhexeeyay 1,300 ilaa 1,800 yuan/tan. Inkasta oo kororkoodu uu ka hooseeyay kan coke-ka sulfur-ka hooseeya, haddana waxay muujiyeen isbeddel guud oo kor u kaca ah.
• Iyada oo ay taageerayaan farqiga baahida saadka: Farqiga baahida saadka ee 870,000 tan sanadka 2025 ayaa la filayaa inuu qiimaha celceliska sanadlaha ah u kaxeeyo 3,000-4,000 yuan/ton.

2. Aragtida 2026

• Koror dhexdhexaad ah oo qiimaha ah: Farqiga baahida saadka iyo saadka ayaa la saadaalinayaa inuu hoos u dhici doono ilaa 660,000 oo tan, laakiin saamiga baahida tamarta cusub ayaa la filayaa inuu kor u kaco ilaa 21%, taasoo qiimaha celceliska sanadlaha ah ku riixaysa inta u dhaxaysa 3,200–4,200 yuan/tan, iyadoo kookaha sulfur-ku yar yahay uu ka sarreyn karo 4,000 yuan/tan.
• Kala duwanaanshaha qaab-dhismeedka: Qiimaha kookaha sulfur-ka badan ayaa sii ahaan doona mid hooseeya sababtoo ah sahay ku filan, oo isbedbeddelaya inta u dhaxaysa 1,500-2,000 yuan/tan.

II. Arrimaha Saameynta Muhiimka ah: Is-dhexgalka Saddex-xagalka ah ee Baahida, Sahayda, iyo Siyaasadda

1. Dhinaca Baahida: Kobaca Qaab-dhismeedka oo ay horseedday Kacaanka Tamarta Cusub

• Agabka baytariga Lithium-ion: Sannadkii 2024, baahida walxaha anode waxay ka dhigan tahay 8% wadarta isticmaalka kookaha batroolka, saamiganna waxaa la saadaalinayaa inuu kor u kici doono 11% marka la gaaro 2026. Ku darista awoodda cusub ee qaybaha cusub ee baabuurta tamarta iyo kaydinta tamarta oo ka badan 5.96 milyan oo tan/sanadkii ayaa si toos ah u kordhin doonta baahida kookaha sulfur-ka yar.
• Tabar-darrada qaybaha dhaqanka: Baahida qaybaha kaarboonka iyo shidaalka ayaa weli ah mid gaabis ah, iyadoo awoodda wax iibsiga ay xaddidan tahay sababtoo ah faa'iido darro. Tusaale ahaan, shirkadaha kaarboonku waxay yareeyeen wax soo iibsiga iyadoo baahida warshadaha aluminiumku ay daciif tahay (iyadoo qiimaha aluminiumka la saxayo 2025), halka qaybta shidaalka ay ku beddeshay kookaha shidaalka ee sulfur-ka badan dhuxusha jaban (celcelis ahaan qiyaastii 500 yuan/tan sannadkii 2025).

2. Dhinaca Sahayda: Kobaca Awoodda Xaddidan iyo Cadaadiska Qiimaha

• Ballaarinta awoodda gudaha oo gaabis ah: Lama qorsheynayo in cutubyo cusub oo coking ah oo dib u dhacay la sameeyo sanadka 2025, iyo canshuuraha soo dejinta oo sarreeya oo lagu soo rogo saliidda shidaalka (laga bilaabo Janaayo 1, 2025) ayaa hoos u dhigay heerarka hawlgalka ee warshadaha sifeynta ee madaxa-bannaan, iyadoo sifeeyayaasha fadhigoodu yahay Shandong ay la kulmaan hoos u dhacii ugu weynaa, taasoo xaddidaysa wax soo saarka gudaha.
• Sahay aan ku filnayn oo dibadda ah: Soo saarista kookaha sulfur-ka yar ayaa xaddidan Yurub iyo Mareykanka sababtoo ah maadada sulfur-ka oo badan oo ku jirta saliidda cayriin, taasoo horseedaysa ku tiirsanaan joogto ah oo soo dejinta ah.

3. Dhinaca Siyaasadda: Xaddidaadaha Laba-geesoodka ah ee ka imanaya Siyaasadaha Deegaanka iyo Ganacsiga

• Xayiraadaha wax soo saarka deegaanka: Baahida loo qabo kookaha batroolka ee sulfur-ka yar (oo leh maaddada sulfur <0.5%) ayaa kor u kacday sababtoo ah u hoggaansanaanta heerarka deegaanka, halka warshadaha kaarboon-ta badan sida aluminiumka elektrolytic-ga ay la kulmeen hoos u dhac wax soo saar iyadoo la raacayo xayiraadaha siyaasadda, taasoo si dadban u saamaysay baahida kookaha batroolka.
• Khilaafaadka Ganacsiga: In kasta oo baahida suuqa caalamiga ah ee gaabiska ah ama isbeddelka sarrifka lacagaha ay saameyn karaan qiimaha gudaha, hagaajinta canshuurta saliidda shidaalka ee 2025 ayaa si toos ah u kordhisay kharashyada sifeeyayaasha madaxa-bannaan, taasoo noqotay sababta ugu weyn ee hoos u dhaca sahayda.

4. Dhinaca Kharashka: Gudbinta Isbeddelka Qiimaha Saliidda Cayriin

• Taageerada kharashka oo daciif ah: Celceliska qiimaha saliidda cayriin ee Brent ayaa la filayaa inuu noqdo 67/barrelin2025 iyo laga yaabo inay dhacdo 51/foosto sanadka 2026 (Saadaasha EIA), taas oo xakamayn doonta kororka qiimaha kookaha batroolka.
• Dhaqdhaqaaqa faa'iidada warshadda sifeynta: Marka qiimaha saliidda cayriin uu sarreeyo, warshadda sifeysayaashu waxay kordhiyaan wax soo saarka saliidda fudud iyagoo dib u dhigaya coking-ka, taasoo kor u qaadaysa sahayda kookaha batroolka. Taas beddelkeeda, kookaha batroolka wuxuu noqdaa kabitaan faa'iido, taasoo taageerta qiimaha.

III. Khataraha iyo Fursadaha Mustaqbalka

1. Khataraha Hoos u Dhaca

• Hoos u dhac lama filaan ah oo ku yimid qiimaha saliidda caalamiga ah: Haddii celceliska qiimaha saliidda cayriin ee Brent uu ka hooseeyo $50/foosto, qiimaha saliidda kookaha ayaa laga yaabaa inuu hoos u dhaco.
• Baahida hoos u dhaca ee ka liidata sidii la filayay: Awoodda xad dhaafka ah ee walxaha anode-ka baytariga lithium-ion ama dhimista wax soo saarka ee aluminiumka elektiroonigga ah ayaa burburin karta baahida.

2. Khataraha Sare

• Hoos u dhac dheeraad ah oo ku yimaada wax soo saarka warshadaha sifeynta ee madaxa-bannaan: Haddii heerarka hawlgalka ee warshadaha sifeynta ee madaxa-bannaan ee fadhigoodu yahay Shandong ay hoos uga dhacaan 50%, hoos u dhaca sahaydu wuxuu qiimaha ku riixi karaa mid sare.
• Baahida tamarta cusub ee ka xoog badan sidii la filayay: Haddii saamiga walxaha anode-ka ee baytariyada lithium-ion uu kordho 15%, qiimaha kookaha batroolka ee heerka sare ah wuxuu ka badnaan karaa 4,500 yuan/tan.

IV. Gunaanad: Fursadaha Dhismaha Iyada oo ay jirto Isbeddel Sare

Qiimaha kookaha batroolka ee sawiran ayaa la filayaa inuu sii ahaado mid aad u isbeddelaya labada sano ee soo socota, iyadoo kookaha baaruuddu ku yar tahay uu soo baxayo isagoo ah sababta ugu weyn ee kobaca sababtoo ah baahida tamarta cusub, halka kookaha baaruuddu ku badan yahay uu arki doono koror xaddidan oo ka dhasha dabeylo ka dhasha qaybaha dhaqanka. Maalgashadayaashu waa inay si dhow ula socdaan:

• Horumarka qaybta cusub ee tamarta (tusaale ahaan, iibinta baabuurta korontada ku shaqeeya, mashruuca kaydinta tamarta ee la soo bandhigay);
• Heerarka hawlgalka warshadda sifeeynta gudaha (gaar ahaan isbeddellada siyaasadda ee saameeya warshadda sifeeysayaasha madaxa-bannaan);
• Isbeddellada qiimaha saliidda caalamiga ah (saamaynta gudbinta kharashka);
• Xoojinta fulinta siyaasadda deegaanka (saamaynta sahayda iyo baahida labadaba).

Iyada oo laga duulayo yoolalka "laba-kaarboon" ee Shiinaha iyo kala-guurka tamarta, suuqa kookaha batroolka ee garaafka lagu sameeyay ayaa maraya isbeddel qaab-dhismeed oo ka imanaya shidaalka dhaqameed una gudbaya agab tamar cusub, iyadoo yaraanta kookaha baaruuddu ku yar tahay ay bixinayso adkeysi qiimo muddo dheer ah.