Maxay yihiin arrimaha ugu muhiimsan ee saameeya isbeddelka qiimaha ee kookaha batroolka ee graphitized ee suuqa?

Qodobbada ugu Muhiimsan ee Saameeya Isbeddellada Qiimaha ee Suuqa Batrool-ka ee Graphitized Coke

I. Dhinaca Baahida: Ballaarinta Warshadaha Hoose iyo Soo bixitaanka Qaybaha Cusub

  1. Baahida ka timid Warshadaha Elektrolytic Aluminium iyo Graphite Elektrode
    Kookaha batroolka ee sawir-gacmeedka leh wuxuu u adeegaa sidii walxo ceeriin ah oo asaasi ah oo loogu talagalay anodes-ka hore loo dubay ee warshadaha aluminiumka elektaroonigga ah iyo walxo muhiim ah oo ku jira wax soo saarka elektroodka garaafka. Isbeddellada ku yimaada awoodda aluminiumka elektaroonigga ah ayaa si toos ah u saameeya baahida:

    • 2017–2018: Kororka wax soo saarka birta foornada korantada ayaa horseeday koror ku yimid baahida elektroodka garaafka, iyadoo qiimaha kookaha batroolka uu cirka isku shareeray laga bilaabo RMB 1,200/tan ilaa in ka badan RMB 7,000/tan.
    • 2024: Xayiraadaha qiiqa kaarboonka ayaa ku qasbay qaar ka mid ah shirkadaha aluminiumka elektaroonigga ah inay yareeyaan wax soo saarka, taasoo yareysay baahida kookaha batroolka isla markaana hoos u dhigtay cadaadiska qiimaha.
    • Qaybta kaydinta tamarta baytariga: Baahida sii kordheysa ee elektroodhada graphite ayaa sii kordhisay qiimaha kookaha batroolka.
  2. Kobaca Qaraxyada ee Bateriga Lithium Baahida Aanode ee Walxaha
    • 2024: Baahida caalamiga ah ee agabka anode-ka ee baytariyada lithium-ka ayaa gaartay 2.2 milyan oo tan, taasoo u baahan in ka badan 3 milyan oo tan oo kookaha batroolka ah, laakiin sahayda dhabta ah waxay ahayd 2.6 milyan oo tan oo keliya, taasoo abuurtay farqi sahay oo ah 13%.
    • 2025: Shirkadaha agabka anode-ka ee Shiinaha ayaa qorsheeyay in ka badan 5 milyan oo tan oo awood ah (oo aad uga badan baahida caalamiga ah ee la saadaaliyay ee 3.5 milyan oo tan), taasoo sii xoojinaysa tartanka loogu jiro alaabta ceeriin ah iyo kor u qaadista qiimaha kookaha batroolka ee sulfur-ka ku yar oo ku dhow RMB 6,000/ton, taasoo ah koror 150% ah laga soo bilaabo horraantii 2023.
  3. Baahida Warshadaha ee loo yaqaan 'Photovoltaic Industry' oo korortay
    • 2024: Baahida caalamiga ah ee kookaha batroolka ee heerka sawir-qaadista ayaa kor u kacday 35%, iyadoo soosaarayaasha walxaha silikoonka (tusaale ahaan, Tongwei, GCL) ay ku tartamayaan kheyraadka kookaha ee sulfur-ku yar yahay, taasoo qiimaha kor u qaadaysa.

II. Dhinaca Sahayda: Qandhada Awoodda iyo Khalkhalka Silsiladda Sahayda

  1. Isku-soo-ururinta Awoodda Sifeynta Saliidda
    • Siyaasadaha Caalamiga ah ee "Labada Kaarboon": Wareegga degdegga ah ee ka bixitaanka awoodda sifeynta duugowday ee Yurub iyo Mareykanka ayaa horseeday hoos u dhac 8% ah oo ku yimid awoodda sifeynta Yurub sannad-sannadeedka iyo heerka xidhitaanka 12% ee ka dhex jira sifeeyayaasha saliidda shale ee Mareykanka sannadkii 2024, taasoo si weyn hoos ugu dhigtay sahayda kookaha batroolka ee sulfur-ka yar.
    • Xiritaanka Warshadaha Sifeeya Shiinaha: Bishii Febraayo 2025, Warshadaha Sifeeya ee madaxa-bannaan ee Shandong (Guangrao, Rizhao, Zibo) waxay ku dhawaaqeen xidhitaan dayactir aan xadidnayn, taasoo sii adkeynaysa sahayda suuqa.
  2. Qiimaynta Alaabta iyo Kaydinta Ganacsadaha
    • Ururinta Ganacsatada: Sannadkii 2024, ganacsatadu waxay ururiyeen kayd aad u sarreeya, taasoo hoos u dhigtay kaydka dekedaha gudaha laga soo bilaabo 2 milyan oo tan sannadkii 2023 ilaa 800,000 oo tan, taasoo si macmal ah u abuurtay "yaraan been ah."
    • Ku tiirsanaanta soo dejinta: Shiinaha ayaa kookaha sulfur-ka badan ka soo dhoofiyay Ruushka iyo Venezuela, iyadoo adeegsanaysa hababka nadiifinta sulfur-ka si loo yareeyo cadaadiska sahayda, inkastoo kharashku uu kor u kacay 5%.
  3. Xiisadaha Juqraafiyeed iyo Caqabadaha Ganacsiga
    • Xayiraadaha dhoofinta Mareykanka ee graphite ee loo diro Shiinaha: Shirkadaha agabka anode-ka ee Shiinaha ayaa lagu qasbay inay ku tiirsanaadaan kookaha batroolka ee gudaha, taasoo sii xoojinaysa cadaadiska baahida gudaha.
    • Qiimaha Saliidda Cayriin: Sannadkii 2024, qiimaha saliidda caalamiga ah ayaa jebiyey USD 120/foosto, taasoo cidhiidhi gelisay faa'iidada sifeynta waxayna ku kalliftay shirkadaha sifeynta inay yareeyaan wax soo saarka, taasoo sii xumeysay yaraanta kookaha batroolka.

III. Siyaasadaha iyo Xeerarka Deegaanka: Qiimaha Kor u kaca iyo Beddelka Tiknoolajiyadda

  1. Siyaasadaha Deegaanka ee Adag
    • Baahida kookaha ee sulfur-ka yar: Kookaha batroolka ee sulfur-ka yar (ka kooban sulfur <0.5%) ayaa la arkay baahi aad uga sarreysa kookaha sulfur-ka badan sababtoo ah u hoggaansanaanta heerarka deegaanka, taasoo ballaarinaysa farqiga qiimaha.
    • Kharashyada wax soo saarka oo sarreeya: Kharashka u hoggaansanaanta deegaanka ee soo saarayaasha kookaha batroolka ayaa kor u qaaday qiimaha.
  2. Khatarta Beddelka Tiknoolajiyadda
    • Kororka anodes-ka ku salaysan silicon: Wax soo saarka ballaaran ee Tesla ee 4680 baytariyo oo leh anodes-ka silicon-kaarboon ayaa kor u qaaday cufnaanta tamarta 20%. Qiimaha kookaha batroolka ee sareeya ee muddada dheer ayaa dedejin kara isbeddelkan beddelka ah.
    • Dib u soo noolaynta garaafka dabiiciga ah: Garaafiga dabiiciga ah ee dusha sare laga beddelay (tusaale ahaan, dahaarka nano-silicon carbide) wuxuu gaaray cimri wareeg oo ka badan 2,000 wareeg isagoo leh kharash ka hooseeya 30% marka loo eego garaafka macmal ah, taasoo qayb ahaan beddeshay baahida kookaha batroolka.

IV. Dareenka Suuqa iyo Qiimaynta Raasumaalka

  1. Kala-goynta Hababka Gudbinta Qiimaha
    • Cadaadiska qiimaha hoose: Shirkadaha hormuudka ka ah baytariyada lithium-ka ee Shiinaha ayaa dalbaday 15% qiimo dhimis agabka anode-ka, taasoo hoos u dhigaysa faa'iidada guud ee soo saarayaasha batroolka ee graphitized petroleum coke laga bilaabo 35% ilaa 8%.
    • Shuruudaha lacag bixinta ee la dheereeyay: Wareegyada xisaabaadka ee la heli karo ayaa laga dheereeyay 90 ilaa 180 maalmood, taasoo kordhinaysa khatarta socodka lacagta caddaanka ah ee ganacsiyada yaryar iyo kuwa dhexdhexaadka ah.
  2. Xumbo Awoodda iyo Isku-darka Warshadaha
    • Uruursiga Suuqa: CR5 (shanta shirkadood ee ugu sarreeya) waxay arkeen saamiga suuqa oo kor u kacay 70% ilaa 85%, iyadoo shirkadaha dabada ka riixaya ay si weyn uga baxeen suuqa.
    • Tartanka caalamiga ah: Shirkadaha Japan iyo Kuuriyada Koonfureed (tusaale ahaan, POSCO Chemical) waxay dardar geliyeen helitaanka soosaarayaasha heerka labaad ee Shiinaha si ay u qabtaan saamiga suuqa ee haray.

V. Aragtida Mustaqbalka: Hadhaaga Baahida Sahayda iyo Dhibcaha Kala-beddelka Qiimaha

  1. Cadaadisyada Hoos u Dhaca
    • 2H 2025: Awood cusub oo sifeyn ah oo ka jirta Bariga Dhexe iyo Hindiya ayaa la filayaa inay soo koobto farqiga saadka kookaha ee sulfur-ka hooseeya ilaa 5%.
  2. Khataraha Sare
    • Saliidda cayriin oo ka sarreysa USD 150/foosto: Heerarka isticmaalka warshadda sifeynta oo hooseeya ee muddada dheer waxay qiimaha kookaha batroolka u horseedi karaan RMB 8,000/ton.
  3. Isbeddellada Khariidadda Tiknoolajiyadda
    • Garaafiga Macmalka ah: Saamiga suuqa ayaa hoos uga dhacaya 80% ilaa 60%, taasoo sii ahaanaysa wadada ugu muhiimsan.
    • Graphite dabiici ah: Saamigu wuxuu kor u kici doonaa 15% ilaa 25%, isagoo ka faa'iideysanaya faa'iidooyinka kharashka.
    • Kaarboon adag oo ku salaysan silikoon: Saamigu wuxuu ka kordhi doonaa 5% ilaa 15%, taasoo furaysa marxaladda kobaca labaad.
Waqtiga boostada: Sebtembar-16-2025