New Delhi: Dhaqaalaha Hindiya ee gaabiska ah iyo warshadaha si weyn ugu tiirsan saliidda cayriin sida duulista hawada, maraakiibta, waddooyinka iyo gaadiidka tareenada ayaa u badan tahay inay ka faa'iidaystaan hoos u dhac degdeg ah oo ku yimid qiimaha saliidda cayriin sababtoo ah cudurka faafa ee coronavirus ee Shiinaha, oo ah soo dejinta saliidda ugu weyn adduunka, ayay yiraahdeen dhaqaaleyahannada, madaxda sare iyo khubarada.
Iyadoo warshado kala duwan ay dib u habeynayaan istaraatiijiyadooda iyadoo saadaasha baahida tamarta la dhimayo sababo la xiriira faafitaanka coronavirus, soo dejiyayaasha saliidda ee waaweyn sida Hindiya ayaa raadinaya inay keenaan gorgortan wanaagsan. Hindiya waa dalka saddexaad ee ugu soo dejiya saliidda adduunka iyo kan afraad ee ugu iibsiga badan gaaska dabiiciga ah ee dareeraha ah (LNG).
Suuqa saliidda ayaa hadda wajahaya xaalad la yiraahdo contango, halkaas oo qiimaha booska uu ka hooseeyo qandaraasyada mustaqbalka.
"Qiyaasaha ay sameeyeen dhowr hay'adood ayaa soo jeedinaya in baahida cayriin ee Shiinaha ee Q1 ay hoos u dhici doonto 15-20%, taasoo keentay hoos u dhac ku yimaada baahida cayriin ee adduunka. Tani waxay ka tarjumaysaa qiimaha cayriin iyo LNG, kuwaas oo labaduba u wanaagsan Hindiya. Tani waxay ka caawin doontaa Hindiya xuduudaheeda dhaqaale iyadoo la xakameynayo yaraanta akoonnada hadda jira, ilaalinta nidaamka sarrifka lacagaha oo deggan iyo sidaas darteed sicir bararka," ayuu yiri Debasish Mishra, oo ah lammaane ka tirsan Deloitte India.
Hay'adda Tamarta Caalamiga ah (IEA) iyo Ururka Dalalka Dhoofiya Batroolka (OPEC) ayaa yareeyay saadaasha koritaanka baahida saliidda adduunka ka dib markii uu faafay cudurka coronavirus.
"Waaxyaha sida duulista hawada, rinjiyeynta, dhoobada, qaar ka mid ah wax soo saarka warshadaha, iwm. waxay ka faa'iideysan doonaan nidaam qiimo jaban," ayuu raaciyay Mishra.
Hindiya waa xarun muhiim ah oo sifeynta Aasiya ah, iyadoo leh awood rakiban oo ka badan 249.4 milyan oo tan sannadkii (mtpa) iyada oo loo marayo 23 warshadood oo sifeyn ah. Qiimaha dambiisha cayriin ee Hindiya, oo celcelis ahaan ahaa $56.43 iyo $69.88 halkii foosto sannadkii FY18 iyo FY19, siday u kala horreeyaan, celcelis ahaan $65.52 bishii Diseembar 2019, sida laga soo xigtay xogta laga helay Unugga Qorsheynta iyo Falanqaynta Batroolka. Qiimaha wuxuu ahaa $54.93 halkii foosto 13kii Febraayo. Dambiga Hindiya wuxuu u taagan yahay celceliska cudbiga cayriin ee Cumaan, Dubai iyo Brent.
"Waagii hore, qiimaha saliidda ee aan fiicnayn wuxuu arkay faa'iidada shirkadaha diyaaradaha oo si weyn u soo hagaagaysa," ayuu yiri Kinjal Shah, madaxweyne ku xigeenka qiimeynta shirkadaha ee hay'adda qiimeynta ICRA Ltd.
Iyada oo ay jirto hoos u dhac dhaqaale, warshadaha safarka hawada ee Hindiya waxay arkeen koror dhan 3.7% tirada rakaabka sannadkii 2019 ilaa 144 milyan oo rakaab ah.
"Kani wuxuu noqon karaa waqti wanaagsan oo shirkadaha diyaaradaha ay ku magdhabaan khasaaraha. Shirkadaha diyaaradaha waxay u isticmaali karaan tan inay dib u soo ceshadaan khasaaraha, halka dadka safarka ah ay u isticmaali karaan waqtigan inay qorsheeyaan safarka maadaama qiimaha tikidhada diyaaradaha uu noqon doono mid jeebka ku habboon," ayuu yiri Mark Martin, aasaasaha iyo madaxa shirkadda Martin Consulting Llc, oo ah la-taliye duulista.
Cudurka coronavirus ee ka dillaacay Shiinaha ayaa ku qasbay shirkadaha tamarta ee halkaas jooga inay joojiyaan qandaraasyada keenista iyo inay yareeyaan wax soo saarka. Tani waxay saameyn ku yeelatay qiimaha saliidda adduunka iyo qiimaha maraakiibta. Xiisadda ganacsiga iyo dhaqaalaha adduunka oo hoos u dhacaya ayaa sidoo kale saameyn ku leh suuqyada tamarta.
Mas'uuliyiinta Golaha Kiimikada Hindiya, oo ah hay'ad warshadeed, ayaa sheegay in Hindiya ay ku tiirsan tahay Shiinaha kiimikooyinka silsiladda qiimaha leh, iyadoo saamiga dalkaas ee soo dejinta uu u dhexeeyo 10-40%. Qaybta kiimikada batroolka waxay u adeegtaa laf-dhabarta qaybaha kale ee wax soo saarka iyo kuwa aan wax soo saarka ahayn sida kaabayaasha dhaqaalaha, baabuurta, dharka iyo kuwa macaamiisha ah ee cimriga dheer.
"Noocyo badan oo kala duwan oo ah agab ceeriin ah iyo kuwa dhexdhexaadiyayaal ah ayaa laga soo dejiyaa Shiinaha. In kasta oo, ilaa hadda, shirkadaha soo dejiya kuwan aan si weyn saameyn ugu yeelan, silsiladdooda sahaydu way sii yaraanaysaa. Markaa, waxay dareemi karaan saameyn mustaqbalka haddii xaaladdu aysan soo hagaagin," ayuu yiri Sudhir Shenoy, madaxweynaha dalka iyo madaxa shirkadda Dow Chemical International Pvt. Ltd.
Tani waxay ka faa'iideysan kartaa soo saarayaasha gudaha ee kiimikooyinka caagga ah, elektroodhada garaafka, madowga kaarboon, midabyada iyo midabada maadaama soo dejinta Shiinaha ee hooseysa ay ku qasbi karto macaamiisha ugu dambeeya inay si maxalli ah uga soo iibsadaan.
Qiimaha cayriin ee hooseeya ayaa sidoo kale war wanaagsan u keenaya khasnadda dawladda iyadoo ay jirto hoos u dhac dakhli iyo hoos u dhac maaliyadeed oo sii kordhaya. Marka la eego kobaca degdegga ah ee ururinta dakhliga, wasiirka maaliyadda Nirmala Sitharaman, isagoo soo bandhigaya miisaaniyadda Midowga, wuxuu isticmaalay qodobka baxsashada si uu u qaato fursad 50-saldhig ah oo ku saabsan hoos u dhaca maaliyadeed ee 2019-20, isagoo qiyaasta dib loo eegay u qaaday 3.8% GDP.
Guddoomiyaha RBI Shaktikanta Das ayaa Sabtidii sheegay in hoos u dhaca qiimaha saliidda uu saameyn wanaagsan ku yeelan doono sicir bararka. "Kor u kaca ugu weyn wuxuu ka imanayaa sicir bararka cuntada, taas oo ah, khudaarta iyo walxaha borotiinka. Sicir bararka asaasiga ah ayaa si yar kor ugu kacay sababtoo ah dib u eegista canshuuraha isgaarsiinta," ayuu raaciyay.
Iyadoo hoos u dhac ku yimid qaybta wax soo saarka, wax soo saarka warshadaha Hindiya ayaa hoos u dhacay bishii Diseembar, halka sicir bararka tafaariiqda uu sii xoogeystay bishii lixaad oo xiriir ah bishii Janaayo, taasoo shaki gelisay geeddi-socodka soo kabashada dhaqaalaha curdinka ah. Xafiiska Tirakoobka Qaranka ayaa ku qiyaasay kobaca dhaqaalaha Hindiya inuu gaaray heerkii ugu hooseeyay ee 5% 11 sano ee 2019-20 iyadoo ay ugu wacan tahay isticmaalka gaabiska ah iyo baahida maalgashiga.
Madan Sabnavis, oo ah dhaqaaleyahan sare oo ka tirsan CARE Ratings, ayaa sheegay in qiimaha saliidda oo hoos u dhacay uu barako u ahaa Hindiya. "Si kastaba ha ahaatee, cadaadiska kor u kaca lama saari karo, iyadoo la filayo in qaar ka mid ah dhimista ay sameeyaan Opec iyo wadamada kale ee dhoofiya. Sidaa darteed, waxaan u baahanahay inaan diiradda saarno sida loo kordhiyo dhoofinta oo aan u eegno sidii aan uga faa'iideysan lahayn sababta qiimaha saliidda oo hoos u dhacaya, taas oo ah, coronavirus, iyo in alaabteena loo riixo Shiinaha, annagoo raadinayna beddel u ah alaab-qeybiyeyaasha marka la soo dejiyo. Nasiib wanaag, sababtoo ah socodka raasumaalka oo joogto ah, cadaadiska rupee maaha arrin," ayuu raaciyay.
Iyada oo ka walaacsan xaaladda baahida saliidda, Opec waxay u gudbi kartaa kulankeeda 5-6 Maarso, iyadoo guddigeeda farsamada uu ku talinayo in si ku meel gaar ah loo dhimo heshiiska Opec+.
"Sababtoo ah badeecadaha ganacsiga caafimaadka leh ee ka yimaada Bariga, saameynta ay ku yeelan karaan dekedaha konteenarada sida JNPT (Jawaharlal Nehru Port Trust) way sarreyn doontaa, halka saameynta dekedda Mundra ay xaddidan tahay," ayuu yiri Jagannarayan Padmanabhan, agaasimaha iyo madaxa ku dhaqanka gaadiidka iyo saadka ee Crisil Infrastructure Advisory. "Dhinaca kale ayaa ah in qaar ka mid ah wax soo saarka ay si ku meel gaar ah uga wareegi karaan Shiinaha una wareegi karaan Hindiya."
Iyadoo kororka qiimaha cayriin ee ka dhashay xiisadda sii kordheysa ee u dhaxaysa Mareykanka iyo Iiraan uu ahaa mid muddo gaaban socday, faafitaanka fayraska korona iyo hoos u dhaca wax soo saarka ee ay dhawaan sameeyeen dalalka OPEC ayaa keenay shaki la'aan.
"In kasta oo qiimaha saliiddu uu hooseeyo, haddana sarrifka (rupee marka loo eego doolarka) ayaa kor u kacaya, taas oo sidoo kale horseedaysa kharashyo badan. Waan ku raaxaysanaynaa marka rupeegu uu yahay qiyaastii 65-70 marka loo eego doolarka. Maadaama qayb weyn oo ka mid ah kharashaadkayaga, oo ay ku jirto tan shidaalka duulista, lagu bixiyo doollar, sarrifka lacagaha qalaad waa qayb muhiim ah oo ka mid ah kharashaadkayaga," ayuu yiri madaxa sare ee shirkad diyaaradeed oo miisaaniyadeed oo fadhigeedu yahay New Delhi isagoo codsaday inaan magaciisa la sheegin.
Si hubaal ah, soo kabashada baahida saliidda ayaa mar kale kicin karta qiimaha taasoo kicin karta sicir bararka oo dhaawici karta baahida.
Qiimaha saliidda oo sareeya ayaa sidoo kale saameyn dadban ku leh kharashka wax soo saarka iyo gaadiidka oo sarreeya, waxayna cadaadis kor u qaadaysaa sicir bararka cuntada. Dadaal kasta oo lagu yareynayo culayska saaran macaamiisha iyadoo la dhimayo canshuurta laga qaado shidaalka iyo naaftada ayaa carqaladeyn doonta ururinta dakhliga.
Ravindra Sonavane, Kalpana Pathak, Asit Ranjan Mishra, Shreya Nandi, Rhik Kundu, Navadha Pandey iyo Gireesh Chandra Prasad ayaa gacan ka geystay sheekadan.
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Waqtiga boostada: Abriil-28-2021