NEW DELHI: Dhaqaalaha Hindiya ee liicsan iyo warshadaha sida weyn ugu tiirsan saliidda cayriin sida duulista, maraakiibta, waddooyinka iyo gaadiidka tareenada waxay u badan tahay inay ka helaan hoos u dhac lama filaan ah oo ku yimid qiimaha saliidda cayriin sababtoo ah cudurka faafa ee coronavirus ee Shiinaha, oo ah saliidda ugu weyn adduunka. soo dejiye, ayay yiraahdeen dhaqaaleyahannada, madaxda sare iyo khubarada.
Iyada oo warshado kala duwan ay dib u habeynayaan istiraatiijiyadooda iyadoo ay jirto saadaasha baahida tamarta ee la dhimay cudurka dillaaca coronavirus, soo dejinta saliidda sida Hindiya waxay raadinayaan gorgortan ka wanaagsan. Hindiya waa dalka saddexaad ee dunida ugu soo dejinta saliidda, waana dalka afraad ee ugu badan ee iibsada gaaska dabiiciga ah (LNG).
Suuqa saliidda ayaa hadda wajahaya xaalad loo yaqaan contango, taas oo qiimihiisu ka hooseeyo qandaraasyada mustaqbalka.
"Qiyaasaha hay'addo dhowr ah ayaa soo jeedinaya in dalabaadka ceyriinka ee Q1 ee Shiinaha uu hoos u dhici doono 15-20%, taasoo keentay hoos u dhac ku yimaada baahida cayriin ee caalamiga ah. Tani waxay ka tarjumaysaa qiimaha cayriin iyo LNG, kuwaas oo labaduba u fiican Hindiya. Tani waxay ka caawin doontaa Hindiya xuduudaheeda dhaqaale-bulsheed iyadoo ay ku jirto xisaab-xumada hadda jirta, ilaalinta nidaamka sarrifka xasilloon iyo sicir-bararka, "ayuu yiri Debasish Mishra, lammaane ka tirsan Deloitte India.
Hay'adda Tamarta Caalamiga ah (IEA) iyo Ururka Waddamada Shidaalka dhoofiya (Opec) ayaa jaray aragtida kobaca baahida saliidda adduunka ka dib markii uu dillaacay coronavirus.
"Waaxaha sida duulista, rinjiga, ceramics, qaar ka mid ah wax soo saarka warshadaha, iwm. ayaa ka faa'iidaysan doona nidaamka qiimaha aan fiicnayn," Mishra ayaa ku daray.
Hindiya waa xudunta sifaynta Aasiya ee muhiimka ah, oo leh awood rakiban oo ka badan 249.4 milyan tan sanadkii (mtpa) iyada oo loo marayo 23 warshado sifeyn ah. Qiimaha dambiisha cayriin ee Hindida ah, oo celcelis ahaan ahaa $56.43 iyo $69.88 halkii foosto ee FY18 iyo FY19, siday u kala horreeyaan, celcelis ahaan $65.52 bishii Disembar 2019, marka loo eego xogta Unugga Qorshaynta iyo Falanqaynta Shidaalka. Qiimaha wuxuu ahaa $54.93 foosto 13kii Febraayo. Dambiisha Hindidu waxay ka dhigan tahay celceliska Cumaan, Dubai iyo Brent cayriin.
"Waagii hore, qiimaha saliida aan wanaagsanayn wuxuu arkay faa'iidada duulimaadka oo si aad ah u soo hagaagaysa," ayuu yidhi Kinjal Shah, madaxweyne ku xigeenka qiimaynta shirkadaha ee wakaalada qiimaynta ICRA Ltd.
Iyada oo ay jirto hoos u dhac dhaqaale, warshadaha safarka hawada ee Hindiya waxay arkeen 3.7% kobaca taraafikada rakaabka sanadka 2019 ilaa 144 milyan oo rakaab ah.
"Tani waxay noqon kartaa wakhti fiican oo shirkadaha diyaaraduhu ay ka soo kabtaan khasaaraha. Duulimaadyadu waxay tan u isticmaali karaan inay dib u soo ceshadaan khasaaraha, halka dadka safarka ah ay isticmaali karaan waqtigan si ay u qorsheeyaan safarka maadaama qiimaha tikidhada diyaaraduhu ay noqon doonaan saaxiibo badan oo jeebka ah, "ayuu yiri Mark Martin, aasaasaha iyo maamulaha Martin Consulting Llc, lataliyaha duulista.
Faafida coronavirus ee Shiinaha ayaa ku qasabtay shirkadaha tamarta inay joojiyaan qandaraasyada gaarsiinta ayna yareeyaan wax soo saarka. Tani waxay saamaysay qiimaha saliidda adduunka iyo qiimaha maraakiibta labadaba. Xiisadaha ganacsiga iyo hoos u dhaca dhaqaalaha adduunka ayaa sidoo kale ku dulman suuqyada tamarta.
Saraakiisha Golaha Kiimikada Hindiya, oo ah hay'ad warshadeed, ayaa sheegay in Hindiya ay ku tiirsan tahay Shiinaha kiimikooyinka silsiladda qiimaha leh, iyada oo saamiga waddankaas ee soo dejinta u dhexeeya 10-40%. Qaybta batroolka waxay u adeegtaa laf-dhabarta qaybaha kala duwan ee wax-soo-saarka iyo kuwa aan wax-soo-saarka ahayn sida kaabayaasha, baabuurta, dunta iyo waxyaalaha adkeysi ee isticmaalaha.
"Waxyaabo kala duwan oo cayriin ah iyo dhexdhexaadiye ayaa laga keenaa Shiinaha. In kasta oo, ilaa hadda, shirkadaha soo dejinaya kuwan aysan si weyn u saameyn, silsiladahooda sahayda ayaa sii qallalaneysa. Markaa, waxa laga yaabaa inay dareemaan saamayn hore u socota haddii xaaladdu aanay ka soo rayn,” ayuu yidhi Sudhir Shenoy, madaxweynaha waddanka iyo maamulaha shirkadda Dow Chemical International Pvt. Ltd.
Tani waxay ka faa'iidaysan kartaa soosaarayaasha gudaha ee kiimikooyinka caagga ah, electrodes graphite, kaarboon madow, midabyo iyo midab sababtoo ah soo dejinta hoose ee Shiinaha waxay ku qasbi kartaa macaamiisha dhamaadka inay ka helaan gudaha.
Sicirka cayriin ee hooseeya wuxuu sidoo kale bishaaro wanaagsan u keenayaa khasnadda dawladda iyadoo ay jirto dakhli yaraan iyo hoos u dhac maaliyadeed oo sii kordhaya. Marka la eego kobaca degdega ah ee dakhli ururinta, wasiirka maaliyadda Nirmala Sitharaman, isagoo soo bandhigaya miisaaniyada Ururka, waxa uu ku baaqay qodobka baxsadka ah si uu u qaado 50-dhibcood ee hoos u dhaca maaliyadeed ee 2019-20, isaga oo qiyaasta dib loo eegay 3.8% ee GDP.
Guddoomiyaha RBI Shaktikanta Das ayaa Sabtidii sheegay in hoos u dhaca qiimaha saliidda uu saameyn wanaagsan ku yeelan doono sicir bararka. "Kor u kaca ugu weyn wuxuu ka yimid sicir bararka cuntada, taas oo ah, khudaarta iyo walxaha borotiinka. Sicir bararka aasaasiga ah ayaa xoogaa kor u kacay sababtoo ah dib u eegis lagu sameeyay tacriifadaha isgaarsiinta,” ayuu raaciyay.
Iyada oo lagu miisaamay hoos u dhaca qaybta wax soo saarka, wax soo saarka warshada Hindiya ayaa qandaraas galay bishii Diseembar, halka sicir-bararka tafaariiqda uu kordhay bishii lixaad ee isku xigta ee Janaayo, taas oo kor u qaadaysa shakiga ku saabsan habka soo kabashada dhaqaalaha curdunka ah. Kobaca dhaqaalaha Hindiya waxaa lagu qiyaasay Xafiiska Tirakoobka Qaranka inuu ku dhufto 11-sano ugu hooseeya 5% 2019-20 xagga dambe ee isticmaalka gaabis ah iyo baahida maalgashiga.
Madan Sabnavis, oo ah madaxa dhaqaalaha ee CARE Ratings, ayaa sheegay in qiimaha saliidda hoose ay barako u ahayd Hindiya. Si kastaba ha ahaatee, cadaadiska kor u kaca ah lama saari karo, iyadoo qaar ka mid ah dhimis ay filayaan OPEC iyo wadamada kale ee dhoofinta. Sidaa darteed, waxaan u baahannahay inaan diirada saarno sidii loo kordhin lahaa dhoofinta oo aan u eegno sidii aan uga faa'iideysan lahayn sababta qiimaha saliidda ee hooseysa, taas oo ah, coronavirus, oo aan u riixno alaabadayada Shiinaha, annaga oo raadineyno beddelka alaab-qeybiyeyaasha soo dejinta. Nasiib wanaag, sababtoo ah qulqulka raasumaalka ee joogtada ah, cadaadiska rupee maaha arrin," ayuu raaciyay.
Isagoo ka walaacsan xaaladda dalabka saliidda, OPec waxaa laga yaabaa inay horumariso shirkeeda 5-6 Maarso, iyada oo guddigeeda farsamo ay ku talinayaan in si ku meel gaar ah loo gooyo nidaamka OPec+.
"Sababtoo ah ganacsiga caafimaadka leh ee laga soo dhoofiyo Bariga, saameynta dekedaha kontaynarrada sida JNPT (Jawaharlal Nehru Port Trust) waxay noqon doontaa mid aad u sareysa, halka saameynta dekedda Mundra ay xaddidi doonto," ayuu yiri Jagannarayan Padmanabhan, agaasimaha iyo tababarka hoggaanka gaadiidka iyo saadka at Crisil Infrastructure Advisory. "Dhinaca kale ayaa ah in qaar ka mid ah wax soo saarka laga yaabo inay Shiinaha uga guuraan Hindiya si ku meel gaar ah."
In kasta oo kororka qiimaha cayriin ay sabab u tahay xiisadda sii kordheysa ee u dhaxeysa Mareykanka iyo Iran ay ahayd muddo gaaban, dillaaca coronavirus iyo wax soo saarka dhow ee ay gooyeen waddamada OPec ayaa soo bandhigay shay hubaal la'aan ah.
“Inkasta oo qiimihiisu hooseeyo, haddana waxa kor u kacaya sarifka lacagta (Rupee marka loo eego dollarka), kaas oo sidoo kale keenaya kharash sare. Waan ku raaxaysnnaa marka rupigu uu qiyaastii yahay 65-70 marka loo eego dollarka. Maadaama qayb weyn oo ka mid ah kharashyadayada, oo ay ku jiraan tan shidaalka duulista, lagu bixiyo doollar, sarifka lacagaha qalaad waa qayb muhiim ah oo ka mid ah kharashyadayada, "Maamule sare oo ka tirsan shirkad miisaaniyadeed oo fadhigeedu yahay New Delhi ayaa yiri shuruudo aan la shaacin.
Si hubaal ah, dib-u-soo-noqoshada baahida saliidda waxay mar kale kicin kartaa qiimihii kicin kara sicir-bararka oo dhaawici kara baahida.
Qiimaha saliidda oo sarreeya ayaa sidoo kale saameyn aan toos ahayn ku yeelanaya wax soo saarka iyo kharashka gaadiidka oo sarreeya waxayna cadaadis kor u qaadaan sicir-bararka cuntada. Dadaal kasta oo lagu yareynayo culeyska macaamiisha iyadoo hoos loo dhigayo canshuurta laga qaado batroolka iyo naaftada waxay caqabad ku noqon doontaa ururinta dakhliga.
Ravindra Sonavane, Kalpana Pathak, Asit Ranjan Mishra, Shreya Nandi, Rhik Kundu, Navadha Pandey iyo Gireesh Chandra Prasad ayaa gacan ka geystay sheekadan.
Hadda waxaad ku biirtay wargeysyadayada. Haddii ay dhacdo inaad dhinaceena ka heli waydo wax iimayl ah, fadlan hubi galka spamka.
Waqtiga boostada: Abriil-28-2021