Dulmar Suuqa: Laga bilaabo Janaayo ilaa Oktoobar 2022, waxqabadka guud ee suuqa kookaha batroolka ee Shiinaha waa mid wanaagsan, qiimaha kookaha batroolkana wuxuu soo bandhigayaa isbeddel "kor u kaca - hoos u dhaca - xasilloon". Iyada oo ay taageerayaan baahida hoos u dhacday, qiimaha kookaha batroolka ee marxaladda dambe ayaa hoos u dhacay, laakiin wali wuxuu ku jiraa heerkii ugu sarreeyay ee taariikhiga ahaa. Sannadkii 2022, sahayda kookaha batroolka ayaa si yar kor ugu kacday marka loo eego rubuci hore. Si kastaba ha ahaatee, sababtoo ah saameynta Ciyaaraha Olombikada Jiilaalka, qiimaha saliidda cayriin ee caalamiga ah oo kor u kacay, iyo ka hortagga iyo xakamaynta cudurrada faafa, warshaduhu waxay yareeyeen wax soo saarka rubuci hore ka hor jadwalka. Wax soo saarku si tartiib tartiib ah ayuu u soo kabtay rubuci labaad, halka tiro badan oo kookaha batroolka ah ee la soo dejiyo, sahayda kookaha batroolka ee dhexdhexaadka ah iyo kuwa sare ay korodhay, sahayda kookaha batroolka ee hooseeya weli waa mid adag. Soo saarista aluminiumka elektiroonigga ah ee meelaha hoose ee wabiga guud ahaan way sii socotaa kobaca, iyo jarista korontada ee Sichuan, Yunnan iyo meelaha kale ee maxalliga ah waxay keentay hoos u dhac ku yimid wax soo saarka, qiimaha aluminiumkuna guud ahaan wuu xasilloonaa. Baahida liidata ee loo qabo kaarburizer, electrode graphite, iyo baahida sii kordheysa ee walxaha anode ayaa horseeday kala duwanaanshaha qiimaha kookaha batroolka ee dhexdhexaadka ah iyo kan hooseeya ee meelaha maxalliga ah. Kookaha batroolka shidaalka waxaa si weyn u saameeyay suuqa caalamiga ah. Kookaha batroolka badan ee loo isticmaalo sibidhka iyo warshadaha kale ayaa muddo dheer laalaabanayay. Soo dejinta kookaha shidaalka badan ee ka yimaada Sacuudi Carabiya iyo Mareykanka ayaa hoos u dhacday, laakiin soo dejinta kookaha batroolka Venezuela waxaa lagu kabay tiro badan oo soo dejin ah.
Ficilka qiimaha
I. Kookaha batroolka ee dhexdhexaadka ah iyo kuwa sare: Laga bilaabo Janaayo ilaa Oktoobar 2022, qiimaha suuqa ee kookaha batroolka ee Shiinaha wuxuu muujiyay isbeddel guud oo ah "kor u kaca - hoos u dhaca - xasilloonida". Laga bilaabo Oktoobar 19, qiimaha tixraaca ee kookaha batroolka wuxuu ahaa 4581 yuan/tan, kor u kacay 63.08% marka la barbar dhigo bilowgii sanadka. Laga bilaabo Janaayo ilaa Abriil, sababo la xiriira dhowr arrimood, sida xayiraadaha wax soo saarka inta lagu jiro Olombikada Jiilaalka, xayiraadaha gaadiidka ee ka dhashay xakamaynta cudurka faafa, iyo qiimaha tamarta adduunka oo kor u kacaya oo ay saameysay xiisadda Ruushka iyo Yukreen, kharashyada sifeynta ee warshadaha sifeynta ayaa guud ahaan kordhay. Natiijo ahaan, cutubyada kookaha ee warshado sifeyn badan ayaa yareeyay wax soo saarka, qaar ka mid ah cutubyada warshadaha sifeynta ayaa joojiyay dayactirka kahor. Natiijo ahaan, sahayda suuqa ayaa si weyn hoos ugu dhacday qiimaha kookahana si weyn ayuu u kacay. Intaa waxaa dheer, qaar ka mid ah warshadaha sifeynta ee ku teedsan wabiga ayaa bixiya wax soo saar taban oo kookaha batroolka ee sulfur, qiimaha kookaha batroolka ayaa si tartiib tartiib ah u kordhay isla tusmada; Tan iyo bishii Maajo, cutubyada kookaha ee la xiray oo la dhimay wax soo saarka ayaa dib u bilaabay wax soo saarka si isdaba joog ah. Si kastaba ha ahaatee, si loo yareeyo kharashyada, qaar ka mid ah warshadaha sifeynta ayaa iibsaday saliid cayriin ah oo qiimo jaban si loo soo saaro. Natiijo ahaan, tusmada guud ee kookaha batroolka ee suuqa ayaa xumaatay, tiro badan oo kookaha batroolka ee la soo dejiyo ayaa soo gaaray dekedda, kuwaas oo inta badan ka soo dejiya kookaha batroolka ee sulfur-ka dhexdhexaadka ah ee ka yimaada Venezuela, Mareykanka, Ruushka, Kanada iyo dalal kale. Laakiin inta badan vanadium. 500PPM oo kookaha batroolka ee sulfur-ka dhexdhexaadka ah iyo kuwa sare, iyo warshadaha aluminium-ka ee gudaha ayaa si isdaba joog ah u xakameeyay walxaha raadadka, vanadium-ka sare (vanadium > 500PPM) qiimaha kookaha batroolka ayaa si weyn hoos ugu dhacay, farqiga qiimaha u dhexeeya kookaha batroolka ee vanadium-ka hooseeya iyo kookaha batroolka ee vanadium-ka sareeya ayaa si tartiib tartiib ah u ballaartay. Tan iyo bishii Juun, iyadoo qiimaha kookaha batroolka uu sii socdo hoos u dhaca, shirkadaha kaarboonka hoose ayaa si isdaba joog ah u soo galay suuqa si ay u iibsadaan. Si kastaba ha ahaatee, maadaama qiimaha kookaha batroolka ceeriin uu weli sarreeyo muddo dheer sanadkan, cadaadiska kharashka hoose waa ka weyn yahay, badankooduna waxay wax ku iibsadaan baahida, qiimaha kookaha batroolka ee sulfur-ka dhexdhexaadka ah iyo kuwa sarena wuxuu sii wadaa hawlgal naxdin leh.
Ii. Kookaha batroolka ee aan salfar lahayn: Laga bilaabo Janaayo ilaa Juun, awoodda walxaha anode-ka ayaa korodhay, baahida suuqu si weyn ayay u korodhay, baahida loo qabo kookaha batroolka ee aan salfar lahayn ayaa si weyn u korodhay. Bishii Abriil, oo ay saamaysay xidhitaankii la filayay ee warshadda sifaynta CNOOC si loo dayactiro, qiimaha kookaha batroolka ee aan salfar lahayn ayaa sii waday inuu ahaado mid sarreeya; Laga bilaabo Luulyo, qaybinta awoodda heerkulka sare, waxqabadka suuqa warshadda birta ee aan salfar lahayn waa mid liita, hoos u dhaca wax soo saarka, joojinta wax soo saarka, korontada graphite ee aan salfar lahayn waa inay noqotaa xaaladdan, hoos u dhac wax soo saar oo badan, qayb ka mid ah xidhitaanka, suuqa walxaha taban ee qiimaha kookaha batroolka ee aan salfar lahayn oo hooseeya ayaa xaddidan, qiimaha kookaha batroolka ee aan salfar lahayn oo hooseeya ayaa si weyn hoos ugu dhacay; Tan iyo Sebtembar, Maalinta Qaranka iyo Xafladda Dayrta Dhexe ayaa midba midka kale yimid. Saamiyada hoos u socota ayaa taageeray qiimaha kookaha ee aan salfar lahayn inuu si yar kor ugu kaco, laakiin imaatinka 20-ka weyn, kuwa hoos u socda si taxaddar leh ayay alaabta u helaan, qiimaha kookaha batroolka ee aan salfar lahayn oo hooseeya ayaa xasilloonaa, qaarna wax ka beddel ayaa la sameeyay.
Marka laga hadlayo kookaha shidaalka, sanadka 2022, qiimaha tamarta adduunka ayaa kor u kici doona, qiimaha dibadda wuxuu ahaan doonaa mid sarreeya oo aan isbeddelin muddo dheer, qiimaha muddada dheer ee kookaha pellet-ka ee sulfur-ka badan ayaa la rogi doonaa, soo dejinta kookaha shidaalka sulfur-ka badan ee ka imanaya Sacuudi Carabiya iyo Mareykanka ayaa hoos u dhici doona, qiimaha kookaha saliidda Venezuela-na wuxuu noqon doonaa mid hooseeya, sidaa darteed soo dejinta ayaa kaabi doonta suuqa. Qiimaha kookaha shidaalka sulfur-ka hooseeya waa mid sarreeya, tilmaamaha baahida kookaha saliidda ee suuqa shidaalka galaaska ahna waa la hagaajiyay.
Dhinaca sahayda
1. Awoodda cutubyada coking-ka ee dib u dhacay ayaa si yar kor ugu kacday laga bilaabo Janaayo ilaa Oktoobar sannadkii 2022. Isbeddelka awoodda ayaa la ururiyay Sebtembar, markii cutub coking ah oo 500,000 tan ah/sanadkii ah oo ku yaal Shandong la hakiyey, isla markaana la soo saaray cutub coking ah oo 1.2 milyan oo tan ah/sanadkii ah oo ku yaal Waqooyi-galbeed Shiinaha.
Ii. Wax soo saarka kookaha batroolka ee Shiinaha bishii Janaayo-Sebtembar 2022 ayaa kordhay 2.13% marka la barbar dhigo kii Janaayo-Sebtembar 2021, kaas oo is-isticmaalka uu gaaray 2,773,600 oo tan, taasoo ah koror dhan 14.88% marka la barbar dhigo kii isla muddadaas 2021, sababtoo ah awoodda wax soo saarka laba cutub oo kookaha cusub ah oo ku yaal Shandong ayaa la howlgeliyay waxaana dib loo bilaabay Juun 2021 iyo Noofambar 2021, siday u kala horreeyaan. Sahayda kookaha batroolka ee suuqa ayaa si weyn u korodhay; Si kastaba ha ahaatee, sanadka oo dhan, kororka wax soo saarka kookaha batroolka wuxuu inta badan ku jiraa kookaha batroolka ee sulfur-ka dhexe iyo kan sare, inta badan waxaa sabab u ah qiimaha saliidda cayriin ee kor u kacaya iyo kororka qiimaha sifeynta ee warshadaha sifeynta. Warshadaha sifeynta qaar ayaa isticmaala saliid cayriin ah oo qiimo jaban si loo yareeyo kharashka, kookaha batroolkana waxaa loo isticmaalaa wax soo saar ka soo horjeeda cutubka kookaha, taas oo si dadban u horseedaysa hoos u dhaca tusmada guud ee suuqa kookaha batroolka. Sida laga soo xigtay tirakoobka Yinfu, soo saarista kookaha batroolka ee dhexdhexaadka ah iyo kuwa sare ee sulfur-ka Janaayo-Sebtembar 2022 ayaa kordhay 2.38% marka la barbar dhigo kii Janaayo-Sebtembar 2021.
Iii. Tirada kookaha batroolka ee la soo dejiyo laga bilaabo Janaayo ilaa Agoosto 2022 waa 9.1273 milyan oo tan, taasoo ah koror sanadle ah oo gaaraya 5.16%. Sida laga soo xigtay Bacuan Yinfu, tirada kookaha batroolka ee la soo dejiyo ayaa la filayaa inay sii korodho laga bilaabo Sebtembar ilaa dhammaadka sanadka, waxaana la filayaa in sahayda kookaha batroolka ee la soo dejiyo ay sii korodho.
Dhinaca baahida
I. Marka laga hadlayo suuqa kaarboonka aluminiumka, qiimaha aluminiumka elektaroonigga ah ee dhammaadka khadka ayaa isbeddelay ilaa inta u dhaxaysa 18,000-19000 yuan/tan, faa'iidada guud ee warshadaha aluminiumka elektaroonigga ah wali way jirtaa. Suuqa kaarboonka aluminiumka ee hooseeya wuxuu bilaabayaa inuu ku shaqeeyo heer sare oo muddo dheer ah, suuqa guudna wuxuu leeyahay baahi wanaagsan oo loo qabo kookaha batroolka. Si kastaba ha ahaatee, waxay ku xiran tahay qaabka iibka ee "hal hagaajin qiimo bil gudaheed", oo ay weheliso qiimaha sare ee kookaha batroolka ceeriin ee muddada dheer, taasoo keentay cadaadis kharash oo weyn iyo inta badan iibsiga baahida.
Suuqa elektroodka graphite ee hooseeya waxaa inta badan la iibsadaa marka loo baahdo. Laga bilaabo Luulyo ilaa Agoosto, saameynta heerkulka sare awgeed, suuqyada birta qaarkood waxay yareeyeen wax soo saarka ama waxay joojiyeen wax soo saarka. Dhinaca saadka ee shirkadaha elektroodka graphite ayaa yareeyay wax soo saarka, taasoo keentay hoos u dhac weyn oo ku yimid baahida suuqa elektroodka graphite. Baahida suuqa ee kaarburizer-ku waa mid deggan; Dowladdu si xooggan ayay u taageertaa horumarinta warshadaha tamarta cusub. Awoodda wax soo saarka ee suuqa walxaha anode ayaa si degdeg ah u ballaaratay, baahida loo qabo kookaha batroolka ayaa si weyn u korodhay. Si loo badbaadiyo kharashyada, shirkado qaar ayaa sameeyay habab cusub oo lagu beddelayo kookaha batroolka ee sulfur-ka hooseeya iyadoo la adeegsanayo kookaha batroolka ee sulfur-ka dhexdhexaadka ah, taasoo yareynaysa kharashyada.
Iii. Marka laga hadlayo kookaha shidaalka, qiimaha tamarta adduunka ee 2022 ayaa kor u kacay, qiimaha dibadda wuxuu ahaa mid sare oo isbeddelay muddo dheer, qiimaha muddada dheer ee kookaha pellet-ka ee sulfur-ka badan leh waa la rogay, waxqabadka macaamil ganacsiguna waa dhexdhexaad, halka suuqa kookaha pellet-ka ee sulfur-ka dhexdhexaadka ah uu deggan yahay.
Saadaasha suuqa mustaqbalka
1. Marka laga eego aragtida sahayda kookaha batroolka, sahayda suuqa kookaha batroolka ayaa la filayaa inay sii kordho, awoodda cutubyada kookaha ee cusub ee la dhisayna si isdaba joog ah ayaa loo soo saaraa wax soo saar. Waxaa la filayaa in kookaha batroolka ee dhexdhexaadka ah iyo kuwa sare ee sulfur uu xukumi doono, laakiin intooda badan waxaa la filayaa in loo isticmaalo is-isticmaalka, taas oo siin doonta kabitaan xaddidan suuqa. Baahida shirkadaha gudaha ee kookaha batroolka ayaa sii kordhi doonta, waxaana la filayaa in tirada kookaha batroolka ee la soo dejiyo ay sii kordho.
2. Marka laga eego aragtida baahida hoos u socota, Bachuan Yinfu wuxuu saadaalinayaa in baahida loo qabo kookaha batroolka ee warshadaha hoos u socda ay sii kordhi doonto dhammaadka 2022 iyo 2023. Iyada oo ay jirto saameynta xiisadda caalamiga ah iyo hoos u dhaca soo saarista saliidda cayriin ee Sacuudi Carabiya iyo Opec, qiimaha saliidda cayriin ayaa la filayaa inuu sii ahaado mid sarreeya, qaybta kharashka si fiican ayaa loo taageeraa, wax soo saarka aluminiumka elektaroonigga ah ee hoose ayaa la filayaa inuu sii kordho, baahida guud ee kookaha batroolka ee warshadaha ayaa sii socota inay muujiso isbeddel sii kordhaya. Maalgashiga cusub ee suuqa walxaha Anode waa mid degdeg ah, baahida kookaha batroolka ayaa la filayaa inay sii korodho; Qiimaha dhuxusha ayaa la filayaa inuu isbedbeddelo iyada oo la raacayo saameynta siyaasadaha dhaqaalaha guud ee qaranka. Baahida suuqa ee galaaska, sibidhka, warshadaha korontada, elektroodhada iyo wakiilada kaarburizing ayaa la filayaa inay sii ahaadaan kuwo dhexdhexaad ah.
3. Siyaasadaha ka hortagga iyo xakamaynta cudurrada faafa ayaa la filayaa inay wali saameyn weyn ku yeeshaan meelaha qaar, taasoo inta badan xaddidaysa gaadiidka baabuurta. Siyaasadaha isku dhafan ee qaybinta korontada iyo xakamaynta isticmaalka tamarta ayaa la filayaa inay wali saameyn ku yeeshaan meelaha qaar, waxaana la filayaa in saameynta guud ee suuqa ay xaddidan tahay.
Guud ahaan, waxaa la filayaa in qiimaha kookaha batroolka ee dhammaadka 2022 iyo 2023 uu sii ahaan doono mid sarreeya oo aan isbeddelin. Waxaa la filayaa in qiimaha ugu weyn ee kookaha batroolka uu yahay 6000-8000 yuan/ton kookaha batroolka ee hooseeya (qiyaastii 0.5% sulfur), 3400-5500 yuan/ton kookaha batroolka ee dhexdhexaadka ah (qiyaastii 3.0% sulfur, gudaha 500 vanadium), iyo kookaha batroolka ee dhexdhexaadka ah (qiyaastii 3.0% sulfur, vanadium > 500) qiimaha 2500-4000 yuan/ton, kookaha batroolka ee sareeya (qiyaastii 4.5% badeecadaha guud) qiimaha 2000-3200 yuan/ton.
Waqtiga boostada: Noofambar-14-2022